Real Estate In Pain But Some Shares Cheaper Than In 2008

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"The ongoing stock market decline has been relentless in its punishment of leveraged and cyclical companies. Not surprisingly, real estate stocks have taken it on the chin in the recent decline."
The ongoing stock market decline has been relentless in its punishment of leveraged and cyclical companies whose shares tend to have higher beta. 

Not surprisingly, real estate stocks have taken it on the chin in the recent decline. Consider this: over the past six months, the BSE Sensex has fallen 13.5 percent while the CNX Realty index is down 34 percent. 

For many investors, the fall in property shares is reminiscent of the 2008 crash, except that, unlike then, there has been an absolute lack of excitement with respect to such stocks preceding the crash. 

There's one more difference. Some of the stocks are trading at valuations that are cheaper than were witnessed even during their 2008 lows. 

To measure stocks' valuations, we used the classic metric price-to-book (P/B), which -- while having its own limitations (such as cash flow being more important than land bank these days) -- serves as some sort of yardstick to ascertain a stock's value.

Interestingly, in the current downturn, some of the 2008 crash's notable market-darlings-turned-lemmings, such as DLF, Unitech, HDIL and Indiabulls Real Estate, are trading at close to 1 time book value or below. 

Others that have arguably done a better job at management since, such as Sobha, Oberoi Realty or Ashiana Housing, are more expensive than the older lot but they too are trading cheaper than they have been in months or years. 

Price-to-book was calculated by dividing the company's book value (assets minus liabilities) per share, as of the latest filing, by its prevailing stock price on each day.

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29 March 2016 at 16:13 delete

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29 March 2016 at 17:03 delete

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